AP Stats course Teacher: Hans van der Zwan
Handout week 46
Literature Starnes D. S., et al. (2015). The Practice of
Statistics (5th ed.). New York: W. H. Freeman and Company/BFW.
Handout per lesson
Lesson 1 Sun 2021-11-14
Learning Objectives
SKILL_ID | SKILL | TOPIC_ID | TOPIC | LO_ID | LEARNING_OBJECTIVE |
1A | Identify the question to be answered or problem to be solved (not assessed). | 4.1 | Introducing Statistics: Random and Non-Random Patterns? | VAR-1.F | Identify questions suggested by patterns in data. [Skill 1.A] |
Preparation for lesson
Study Starnes et al. (2015), p. 286 - 294.
Class Activities
Topics to discuss:
what does probability mean?
what does probability mean in these sentences:
- if you toss a coin, the probability of heads is 0.5?
- if you roll a dice, the probability of the outcome six is 1/6?
- if you are vaccinated with the Pfizer vaccine against covid-19, the
probability that you will be infected with covid is 25%?
- the probability that it will rain tomorrow in Amsterdam is 10%?
- the probability that Djokovic will win the tennis match against
Nadal is 75%?
Three kinds of probabilities:
- pure theoretical; calculated by reasoning
- observational; based on experiments/ collected data and relative
frequencies
- ‘tittle-tattle’ probabilities (subjective probabilities)
Law of large numbers
Lab
Homework for next lesson
- Study section 5.1
- Exercises: 5.1, 5.2, 5.11, 5.12
- Watch AP
4.1 Daily Video 1; write up the take aways at the end of the
video
Lesson 2 Mon 2021-11-15
Learning Objectives
SKILL_ID | SKILL | TOPIC_ID | TOPIC | LO_ID | LEARNING_OBJECTIVE |
3A | Determine relative frequencies, proportions, or probabilities using simulation or calculations. | 4.2 | Estimating Probabilities Using Simulation | UNC-2.A | Estimate probabilities using simulation. [Skill 3.A] |
Preparation for lesson
See homework previous lesson
Class Activities
Discuss:
- questions about last lesson or homework
- Take Aways AP 4.1 Daily Video 1
- A Random Process is a situation where all possible outcomes that can
occur are known, but individual outcomes are unknown
- Patterns of random occurrences may include strings or runs of
outcomes that appear to be non-random
- simulations to estimate probabilities
- section 5.1 Summary, p.299
Lab
Lesson 3 Tue 2021-11-16
Learning Objectives
SKILL_ID | SKILL | TOPIC_ID | TOPIC | LO_ID | LEARNING_OBJECTIVE |
3A | Determine relative frequencies, proportions, or probabilities using simulation or calculations. | 4.3 | Introduction to Probability | VAR-4.A | Calculate probabilities for events and their complements. [Skill 3.A] |
4B | Interpret statistical calculations and findings to assign meaning or assess a claim. | 4.3 | Introduction to Probability | VAR-4.B | Interpret probabilities for events. [Skill 4.B] |
Preparation for lesson
See homework from previous lesson
Class Activities
Discuss
- homework and questions
- take aways AP 4.2 Daily Video’s
Theory
- book section 5.2, pp. 305-309
- calculating probabilities the formal way
- definitions
- basic rules
- complement rule
- legitimate probability models
Lab
- Excercises, selection from 5.39 to 5.48
Homework for next lesson
Watch: AP
4.4 Daily Video 1, write up the take aways Exercises: 5.49, 5.50,
5.55
Lesson 4 Wed 2021-11-17
Learning Objectives
SKILL_ID | SKILL | TOPIC_ID | TOPIC | LO_ID | LEARNING_OBJECTIVE |
4B | Interpret statistical calculations and findings to assign meaning or assess a claim. | 4.4 | Mutually Exclusive Events | VAR-4.C | Explain why two events are (or are not) mutually exclusive. [Skill 4.B] |
Preparation for lesson
Study: see homework previous lesson
Class Activities
Theory, book section 5.2:
- general addition rule for two events
- using Venn Diagrams to calculate probabilities
- two-way tables or contingency tables
- general addition rule for three events
Discuss
- homework exercises
- take aways AP 4.4 Daily Video 1
Lab
- Exercises 5.51, 5.57, 5.58, 5.59, 5.60
Homework for next lesson
- Exercises above if not made during class
- Prepare for quiz about sections 5.1 and 5.2
Lesson 5 Thu 2021-11-18
Activities
Quiz about sections 5.1 and 5.2 (25 minutes)
After handing in the quiz answers, work on the exercise below. It
is allowed to work together on this exercise.
Exercise Make a contingency table with information
about all the grade 11 and grade 12 students. Put home country in the
rows and gender in the columns.
Home Country | Female | Male |
USA |
|
|
Korea |
|
|
... |
|
|
... |
|
|
Assume a random student from all 11th and 12th graders is selected
randomly.
- What is the probability this student is a male student?
- What is the probablity the home country of this student is an Asian
country?
- What is the probability the home country is not an Asian
country?
- What is the probability this student is a female from Korea?
- What is the probability this student is a female or comes from
Korea?
- If it is known that the selected student is a male, what is the
probability his home country is the USA?
- Same question as (v) if the student is a female.
- If it is known that the selected student’s home country is the USA,
what is the probability that it is a male student.
- See question (vii); what is the probability that it is a female
student?
- What is the probability this student likes statistics? ;-)
